Old footage from the Japanese government in 2016 simulating the potential effects of a powerful earthquake has been misrepresented online as showing the tremor that shook the country’s south in August 2024. Japan warned of a potentially devastating “megaquake” after the recent 7.1-magnitude quake before lifting the alert a week later.
The 10-second footage — appearing to show objects falling off shaking buildings — was published on TikTok on August 21, 2024.
Korean-language text overlaid to it read: “2024.8.8 Japan earthquake. Precursor to the great Nankai earthquake.”
The post was shared days after the powerful 7.1-magnitude earthquake struck Miyazaki prefecture in southwestern Japan on August 8, 2024, injuring at least 15 people.
The country’s weather agency issued its first-ever “megaquake” advisory for a massive tremor along the Nankai Trough — between two tectonic plates in the Pacific Ocean — but the alert was lifted on August 15 (archived link).
The video was also shared alongside similar false claims on YouTube and on South Korean forums Ilbe and DC Inside.
But it actually shows a simulation of a megaquake hitting the Nankai Trough released by the Japanese government in 2016.
Simulation video
A reverse image search found the clip corresponds to a section of a 17-minute video that includes simulations of an earthquake in the Nankai Trough, which was released by the Japanese government’s Cabinet Office (archived link).
The circulating clip matches the 3:29 to 3:39 mark in the longer footage from 2016.
Below is a screenshot comparison between the clip shared in the false posts (left) and the video published by the Japanese government (right):
An English-language version of the video was posted on YouTube on April 28, 2022 (archived link).
“The region along the Nankai Trough has experienced a major earthquake with a magnitude of 8 to 9 about every 100 to 150 years,” the text read.
“The predicted probability of a magnitude 8 to 9 earthquake striking in the next 30 years is about 70%. The worst-case scenario estimates 323,000 deaths from this earthquake.”
It continued: “What will we experience when this happens? Let’s look at a simulation based on the final report of a working group studying countermeasures for the Nankai Trough Earthquake.”
The simulation made headlines shortly after its release in 2016 in press reports in Japan, South Korea and Taiwan which underscored the devastating forecast made by the video (archived links here, here and here).
“The Japanese government released a video that simulated a magnitude 9.0 earthquake,” says the South Korean Channel A news report.
“The video, which estimated that up to 320,000 people may be killed by such a disaster, has sent shockwaves across Japan.”
AFP has previously debunked similar misinformation swirling online following the August 2024 earthquake.
