When the NCAA men’s basketball bracket is unveiled on Sunday evening, a few coaches may subtly fist pump under the table.
Maybe they landed in a region with a wobbly top-four seed with a fatal flaw they can expose. Or maybe they drew an opening-round opponent who peaked in December and is skidding into March.
The purpose of this now-annual column is to identify those opponents NCAA tournament teams should want to draw before the bracket comes out. These are teams that for whatever reason don’t appear to be as strong as ones projected to receive similar seeds.
Two years ago, identified Purdue more than a week before it became the second No. 1 seed ever to collapse in the first round. Last year, correctly pegged Kansas as ripe for an early exit but mostly swung and missed on the rest. We’ll hope for better results this time around.
Marquette Golden Eagles
Record: 22-9, 13-7 Big East | Projected seed: No. 6
On Friday, January 3, Marquette comfortably defeated Creighton to improve its record to 13-2 and cement its place in the top eight in the AP poll. Hard as it may be to believe, that was the last NCAA tournament-caliber opponent that the Golden Eagles have beaten.
Since then, Marquette has performed like the No. 46 team in the country, according to Bart Torvik’s rankings. The best win Marquette has notched during that span is … at Georgetown? Or maybe home against Villanova? The Golden Eagles dropped all six games against fellow top-five Big East teams since early January, the last one via a St. John’s buzzer beater on senior night.
Marquette is almost certain to be a single-digit seed on Selection Sunday thanks to non-league victories over the likes of Wisconsin, Maryland, Purdue, Georgia and George Mason. Still, if the Golden Eagles don’t hit more of the open shots they’re generating and don’t provide more offensive support for All-American guard Kam Jones, their stay in the NCAA tournament is likely to be brief.
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Purdue Boilermakers
Record: 21-10, 13-7 Big Ten | Projected seed: No. 4
Purdue boasts an elite offense headlined by the most dynamic point guard in the country, but not even Braden Smith abusing all sorts of ball screen coverages may be enough to hide his team’s defensive weaknesses. The Boilermakers are struggling to find a way to protect the rim without a traditional rim protector.
With Zach Edey gone to the NBA and 7-foot-4 freshman Daniel Jacobsen lost to a broken leg, Purdue lacks a center capable of altering shots in the paint or deterring opposing players from attempting them. Opponents are shooting a blistering 56.2% from inside the 3-point arc against the Boilermakers, 344th nationally per KenPom.
Exacerbating Purdue’s already inadequate rim protection is the fact that Smith and fellow guard Fletcher Loyer aren’t exactly known for their on-ball defense. The Boilermakers can paper over this issue for stretches when their perimeter players stay in front of their man and wall off driving lanes, but ultimately they’ll have to score extremely efficiently to maintain hope of a deep NCAA tournament run.
Michigan Wolverines
Record: 22-9, 14-6 Big Ten | Projected seed: No. 5 or 6
A Michigan team that once appeared capable of a deep NCAA tournament run is skidding into the postseason. The Wolverines have dropped three straight and four of six thanks in large part to their carelessness with the ball and inability to secure a defensive rebound.
With Tre Donaldson failing to hit his season-long scoring average seven games in a row and no other guards consistently generating scoring chances, Michigan has become all too reliant on 7 footers Vlad Goldin and Danny Wolf. Those two have carried the offense but have struggled to deal with traps and double teams, exacerbating the Wolverines’ season-long turnover issues.
In their last four losses, Michigan has turned the ball over a total of 57 times and surrendered 56 second-chance opportunities. That’s not a recipe for March success. That’s a formula for an early exit.
Tennessee Volunteers
Record: 25-6, 12-6 SEC | Projected seed: No. 2
If you have to encounter a top-two seed during the opening weekend of the NCAA tournament, Tennessee might be the one you want to draw. As usual, the Volunteers play tough, physical defense, but they’re again more vulnerable to an upset than other elite teams because of their methodical pace and erratic, 3-point-reliant offense.
Tennessee ranks 345th nationally in adjusted tempo, according to KenPom. The Vols want to slow the pace to a crawl, get their top-ranked defense set and grind out victories.
Can North Florida transfer Chaz Lanier thrive as a go-to scorer late in close games on an NCAA tournament stage? Can Tennessee string together enough good outside shooting performances to advance deep into a single-elimination tournament? The Vols are capable of their program’s first-ever Final Four run, but their propensity to go cold from the field makes them a potential upset candidate.
Arizona Wildcats
Record: 20-11, 14-6 Big 12 | Projected seed: No. 4 or 5
The lone criticism that Arizona coach Tommy Lloyd faced during his first three years in Tucson was that his teams underachieved in March. He went 84-17 in non-NCAA tournament games. He went 4-3 in March Madness.
The way this season’s Arizona team has sputtered lately isn’t inspiring confidence that these Wildcats will produce a more memorable postseason. Arizona has dropped five of its past eight games and has the nation’s 94th-ranked defense during that stretch. The Wildcats aren’t forcing turnovers on defense, nor are they defending the paint or keeping opponents off the offensive boards.
When streak-shooting Caleb Love plays at an all-conference level, Henri Veesaar provides interior scoring and Jaden Bradley and K.J. Lewis attack the rim, Arizona can overcome an off night defensively. When the Wildcats settle for 3-pointers early in the shot clock, they become very, very beatable.
