Kamala Harris’s economic policies proved far more popular than Donald Trump’s plans in a blind test of their proposals.
Four of the top five most popular proposals were from the Democratic candidate’s campaign, according to a new Harris Poll conducted exclusively for the Guardian.
The poll showed strong optimism from Democrats about Harris’s presidential candidacy but – once again – highlighted pessimism around the US economy from both sides of the aisle.
Americans surveyed were given a list of 12 policy proposals – six from Harris’s campaign and six from Trump’s. The poll did not say whose campaign the proposals came from.
The most popular proposal was a federal ban on the price-gouging of food and groceries – a Democratic proposal that some leading economists have criticized. Nearly half (44%) of all those polled agreed that it would strengthen the economy.
Harris’s price gouging proposal is designed to help address the top economic issue of respondents: cost of living. A majority of those polled (66%) indicated that the cost of living was one of their biggest economic concerns right now.
Other Harris proposals that voters liked included expanding the child tax credit (33%) and selected tax breaks for new small businesses (33%). The only Trump plan to break the top five was his proposal to cut taxes on social security benefits (42%).
But Trump’s policies are popular with his base: when asked about his proposal for the mass deportation of millions of migrants, 43% of Republicans said it would be good for the economy versus 24% of independents and 15% of Democrats.
In more good news for Harris, independent voters, a key group this election, seemed to favor Harris’s policies over Trump’s. Four out of the five top policies selected by independents are from Harris’s campaign.
Since Joe Biden withdrew from the presidential race two months ago, paving the way for Harris to become the Democratic candidate, she has tried to craft her own economic platform.
This has involved shifting away from Bidenomics, which failed to ignite much enthusiasm on the campaign trail. In the Harris/Guardian poll conducted last September, a majority of Democrats (62%) said that while Bidenomics was good in theory, it wasn’t being implemented well.
Harris instead has been promoting her “opportunity economy”, which focuses on rising costs, rather than issues like infrastructure and manufacturing, which were key components of Bidenomics.
The shift in focus seems to be working. Harris’s policies were particularly popular with younger Americans, an increasingly powerful voting bloc.Some 87% of millennials and gen Z voters said that at least one of Harris’s proposals would be good for the economy, versus 79% of young voters who said the same for Trump.
Of the four generations polled, millennial voters seemed to be the most onboard with Harris’s candidacy, energized by her appointment after President Biden withdrew. The majority of millennials (59%) said that Harris’s policies are better than Biden’s, compared to just 36% of Boomers.
Democratic voters as a whole seem to think Harris turned out to be the better candidate: when asked if their lives would be better if Harris or Biden won the election, 80% of Democratic voters went with Harris.
Though Harris has received criticism for being “light on policy”, a majority of all voters in the poll suggested they understand her policies just fine. More than 60% of voters said they understood Harris’s policies on the economy.
Slightly more voters said they understood where Trump stands on certain issues more than Harris, but most of the differences were small. The widest gap was seen in how voters understand the candidate’s tax policies, with 70% of voters indicating that they understood Trump’s pledges, while 62% said the same for Harris.
“Despite some skepticism that VP Harris has yet to define where she stands, our data shows she’s energized her base – particularly millennials, who will be the largest voting bloc this election – by effectively messaging and connecting with them on the issues they are facing as they move more into adulthood: childcare, housing and jobs,” said John Gerzema, CEO of Harris Poll.
Across the board, Americans still seem to be down about the economy – negativity that has persisted since Harris Poll and the Guardian first asked voters their thoughts about the economy last September, and again in May.
Since the last poll in May, the economy improved across several key measures. Inflation fell back to 2.5% in August, the lowest it’s been since 2021, and has been going down for the last five months. Though there have been some anemic job growth reports, unemployment is still relatively low at 4.2%. And the stock market has hit record highs in September. And all of this is despite the decades-high interest rates, which the US Federal Reserve only started to cut this month.
But Americans are still feeling sour.
When asked how they feel about the US economy now, compared with the start of the summer, 35% of respondents said they were more pessimistic, while 29% felt more optimistic (29%). Nearly three-quarters (73%) of all polled said they did not feel any positive effects of good economic news today.
A majority of Americans (61%) believe inflation is increasing, when it has actually fallen significantly from its peak in 2022. And nearly half of those polled, 49%, said they believed the US economy was experiencing a recession. The US is not in recession.
Though many seem to believe the economy is worse than it really is – particularly when looking at macroeconomic measures like inflation, unemployment and interest rates – most Americans are actually feeling better about their own personal financial situations.
More Americans indicated they were confident in their overall personal finances (61%) and their ability to afford necessities (72%) compared with May. And when asked if they felt better off financially than their parents, 58% of those polled agreed – 8% more than when the same question was asked last September.
As shown with the last two Confidence Question polls, beliefs about the economy tend to be shaped by a person’s political party. Democrats are far more likely to feel better about the economy than Republicans. Half of Democrats, 51%, compared with 30% of Republicans, said they feel optimistic about the future of the US economy.
Something that Americans from both parties agree on: they still don’t know who to trust when it comes to learning about the economy. And most respondents (78%) also agreed that most people don’t know how the US economy is actually doing, despite it being their top priority in the election.
This survey was conducted online within the US by the Harris Poll from 12 to 14 September 2024 among a nationally representative sample of 2,122. The margin of error for the survey is 2.6 percentage points.
