It’s been a roller coaster of a month for lunch meat.
In late July, just as parents were starting to decide what to pack in school lunches, Boar’s Head recalled more than 7 million pounds of ham, salami and other products after its liverwurst was linked to a deadly listeria outbreak. That’s enough cold cuts to fill 161 semi trucks.
Recently, lunch meat became a political prop when it made a cameo appearance on a table of groceries laid out alongside Donald Trump as he delivered a speech complaining about the high cost of food. The price of lunch meat, his campaign said, had risen 23.2% since Kamala Harris became vice president. (Other national sales data has pegged the increase at about 25%.)
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As if on cue, deli meat sales dropped by almost 8% the week the recall was announced, which “in the grand scheme of things is very mild,” said Anne-Marie Roerink, president of food research company 210 Analytics. Since they peaked during the pandemic era, lunch meat sales as a whole have been soft. In the year ending in June, they dropped 2.4%.
But never bet against lunch meat. A staple that made its American debut at German-Jewish delis in the 1850s is now a $16 billion-a-year business that seems to navigate challenges and changes — whether warnings about links to cancer and heart disease, or sudden fads like the charcuterie board — with equal aplomb.
After a few years of pandemic- and price-related ups and downs, the cold cut market is settling back into tempered growth, according to a 2023 report on bacon and lunch meat from Mintel. “Lunch meat has been an incredibly stable segment,” said Jonna Parker, a fresh-foods analyst with Circana. “There is a buoyancy.”
Lunch meat sales have weathered food inflation, largely because there are so many choices. Shoppers can trade up to delicate, pricey slices of mortadella when they are feeling flush or looking to entertain, and trade down to bags of less-expensive bologna when they are not.
In a world in which convenience, choice and customization are food industry watchwords, deli meat provides a way for everyone in the house to find something in the refrigerator for a fast meal.
The recent recall by Boar’s Head centered on contamination from listeria, bacteria that can cause serious infections, particularly in people who are pregnant, are over 65 or have weakened immune systems. Other people might feel it like they would the flu, with fever, vomiting and diarrhea. Listeria can grow even when an infected product is packaged and refrigerated, and can linger on slicers and other surfaces where food is prepared.
As of Aug. 8, three deaths and 43 hospitalizations across 13 states had been linked to the strain of listeria found in the Boar’s Head products, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reported. (The Boar’s Head media office did not respond to emails seeking comment.)
Roerink and others who study the market said a number of factors beyond the recall could have caused the recent drop in sales. They expect the numbers to be back to normal in a month. The traditional back-to-school bump will help, they said, but so will a shopping public that has more faith in the recall process than it used to, or at least is more willing to move past the stigma.
“This will impact sales very temporarily,” said Roerink, who has worked in retail food research for more than 20 years. “Americans have great confidence in the safety of the food they buy.”
Aidan Krainock, a private school fund raiser and an art appraiser in Portland, Oregon, is one of them. She’s a fan of Boar’s Head, particularly its beef bologna, which she asks the deli to slice thin. She eats it on a baguette with a touch of mayonnaise and mustard.
When Krainock heard about the recall, she stopped visiting the supermarket deli department. But after a little research, she’s ready to return. “If they hadn’t isolated the issues or if Oregon was one of the hot states, I would be terrified to go back,” she said.
Still, she eats cold cuts with restraint. Her mother is recovering from colorectal cancer; studies have shown that increased consumption of processed meats can raise a person’s risk of developing such cancers.
“Despite growing public health concerns about processed meat consumption, there have been no changes in the amount of processed meat consumed by U.S. adults over the last 18 years,” according to researchers who in 2019 published their findings in the Journal of the Academy of Nutrition and Dietetics.
Like so many grocery store staples, lunch meat got a big boost during the COVID era. Prepared deli ham, for example, grew by 25% in 2020.
That popularity lingered. Shoppers shifted from buying freshly sliced meat to packaged deli meat and grab-and-go combinations that mixed meats and cheeses. Today, 52% of deli meat sales come from the grab-and-go case, up from 37% in 2019, said Chris DuBois, who oversees research into meat, seafood and deli products for Circana.
“This is a slow-moving earthquake,” he said.
Millennials, who tend to value convenience, are less likely than their older counterparts to spend the time asking a deli counter worker to slice meat, DuBois said. Research also shows that they are big snackers and interested in adding more protein to their diets, which may all help assure the future of the cold cut.
“Older generations might think of it purely as a sandwich occasion, but yes, cold cuts can be a snack or whole dinner,” Roerink said. “A younger generation that is very protein-forward might have a couple slices of turkey meat for an afternoon snack.”
Luring them involves offering innovative flavors, and underscoring animal welfare and improved processing practices. That has translated to products like antibiotic-free citrus-ginger turkey breast, national brands repackaged to emphasize sustainability, and vegan salami.
But those likely won’t change the lunch meat landscape, DuBois said. The classics will endure.
“Turkey and roast beef and ham — that’s most of your business right there,” said Stew Leonard Jr., president of a small, colorful Northeast grocery chain his father started in 1969. “That’s your Ford, GM and Chrysler.”
The deli counter has long been one of Stew Leonard’s most reliable departments, even when it stopped selling Boar’s Head products over a business dispute in 2022. And it will likely remain so, Leonard said. “People are always going to have their cold cuts.”
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