2024 Emmys Predictions For Every Category

Variety‘s Awards Circuit is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year. It features the official predictions for the Oscars, Emmys, Grammys, and Tony Awards, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.

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2024 Emmy Predictions: All Categories

Weekly Commentary (Updated May 2, 2024): As the television landscape stands, popular series like “The Crown” in drama, “The Bear” in comedy, and “Shо̄gun” in limited series are dominating their categories. However, the landscape of television awards is never straightforward.

The deadline for submissions to this year’s awards is rapidly approaching on Tuesday, May 7, hinting at potential surprises in the nomination process.

Particularly, the categories for talk series and scripted variety face challenges in garnering sufficient entries. Only 11 shows have submitted for the talk series category, potentially leading to a mere three nominees. This situation is starkly different from last year when “The Daily Show With Trevor Noah” clinched the award. This year, “The Daily Show” returns with Jon Stewart appearing once weekly. It’s unclear how this change will resonate with the voting panel.

Notably, talk show hosts such as Jimmy Kimmel and Stephen Colbert have consistently been in the running without securing a win for their shows. Meanwhile, Seth Meyers has gained traction, achieving his first nominations in the last two years. Conversely, Jimmy Fallon and Bill Maher have not been nominated since 2016.

In the realm of scripted variety, the competition is sparse, with only four potential entries: “Saturday Night Live” from NBC, “Last Week Tonight with John Oliver” from HBO/Max, CBS’s “After Midnight,” and Netflix’s “John Mulaney Presents: Everybody’s in LA.” According to Emmy regulations, a category with fewer than seven entries must be screened by a peer group, and only those receiving approval from nine-tenths of the group will be nominated. This raises the possibility that none of the four shows will meet this high approval rate, leaving the category potentially unawarded.

This decline in submissions might prompt the Television Academy to reconsider the structure of these categories. Perhaps it’s time to revert to the pre-2015 system, where these categories were combined, especially given the strategic avoidance by networks and studios of competing against John Oliver. This has led to dwindling interest and entries in these categories, suggesting urgent re-evaluation.

Below, new categories have been added for directing, writing, hosting a game show or reality competition program, hosting a nonfiction documentary series and casting.

Top 3 nomination leaders for series: “The Bear” (23), “The Crown,” “The Morning Show” and “Shōgun” (13), “The Gilded Age” (9)

Top 3 nomination leaders for networks: Netflix (47), FX (46), Max (38)

Upcoming For Your Consideration (FYC) events: Disney’s “What If…?” and Apple’s “Loot” (May 3), Hulu’s “Black Cake” and Apple’s “The Buccaneers” and “Masters of the Air” (May 4), Prime Video’s “Maxine’s Baby: The Tyler Perry Story,” Apple’s “Acapulco” and Netflix’s “Beckham” (May 5)

Note: Not all category and genre placements are yet to be confirmed.

Read: All Primetime Emmy predictions in every category on Variety’s Awards Circuit.

*** = Predicted Winner

Drama Series

“The Crown” (Netflix) ***
“The Curse” (Showtime)
“Fallout” (Prime Video)
“The Gilded Age” (Max)
“Loki” (Disney+)
“The Morning Show” (Apple TV+)
“Mr. and Mrs. Smith” (Prime Video)
“3 Body Problem” (Netflix)

Emmy category page with rankings>>>

Comedy Series

“Abbott Elementary” (ABC)
“The Bear” (FX) ***
“Curb Your Enthusiasm” (Max)
“Gen V” (Prime Video)
“The Gentlemen” (Netflix)
“Hacks” (Max)
“Only Murders in the Building” (Hulu)
“What We Do in the Shadows” (FX)

Emmy category page with rankings>>>

Limited Series

“Baby Reindeer” (Netflix)
“Fellow Travelers” (Showtime)
“Lessons in Chemistry” (Apple TV+)
“Shо̄gun” (FX) ***
“True Detective: Night Country” (Max)

Emmy category page with rankings>>>

Television Movie

“The Caine Mutiny Court-Martial” (Paramount+)
“Mr. Monk’s Last Case” (Peacock)
“Quiz Lady” (Hulu)
“Red, White and Royal Blue” (Prime Video) ***
“Scoop” (Netflix)

Emmy category page with rankings>>>

Lead Actor (Drama)

Nathan Fielder
“The Curse” (Showtime)
Donald Glover
“Mr. & Mrs. Smith” (Prime Video)
Walton Goggins
“Fallout” (Prime Video)
Tom Hiddleston
“Loki” (Disney+)
Gary Oldman
“Slow Horses” (Apple TV+)
Dominic West ***
“The Crown” (Netflix)

Emmy category page with rankings>>>

Lead Actor (Comedy)

Larry David
“Curb Your Enthusiasm” (Max)
Steve Martin
“Only Murders in the Building” (Hulu)
Theo James
“The Gentlemen” (Netflix)
Martin Short
“Only Murders in the Building” (Hulu)
Jeremy Allen White ***
“The Bear” (FX)

Emmy category page with rankings>>>

Lead Actor (Limited)

Matt Bomer
“Fellow Travelers” (Showtime)
Richard Gadd
“Baby Reindeer” (Netflix)
Jon Hamm ***
“Fargo” (FX)
Cosmo Jarvis
“Shо̄gun” (FX)
Hiroyuki Sanada
“Shо̄gun” (FX)
Andrew Scott
“Ripley” (Netflix)

Emmy category page with rankings>>>

Lead Actress (Drama)

Jennifer Aniston
“The Morning Show” (Apple TV+)
Carrie Coon
“The Gilded Age” (Max)
Maya Erskine
“Mr. & Mrs. Smith” (Prime Video)
Imelda Staunton ***
“The Crown” (Netflix)
Emma Stone
“The Curse” (Showtime)
Reese Witherspoon
“The Morning Show” (Apple TV+)

Emmy category page with rankings>>>

Lead Actress (Comedy)

Quinta Brunson
“Abbott Elementary” (ABC)
Ayo Edebiri
“The Bear” (FX)
Maya Rudolph 
“Loot” (Apple TV+)
Jean Smart ***
“Hacks” (Max)
Kristen Wiig
“Palm Royale” (Apple TV+)

Emmy category page with rankings>>>

Lead Actress (Limited)

Jodie Foster
“True Detective: Night Country” (Max)
Brie Larson
“Lessons in Chemistry” (Apple TV+)
Anna Sawai ***
“Shо̄gun” (FX)
Juno Temple
“Fargo” (FX)
Naomi Watts
“Feud: Capote vs. the Swans” (FX)
Kate Winslet
“The Regime” (Max)

Emmy category page with rankings>>>

Supporting Actor (Drama)

Khalid Abdalla
“The Crown” (Netflix)
Billy Crudup ***
“The Morning Show” (Apple TV+)
Salim Daw
“The Crown” (Netflix)
Mark Duplass
“The Morning Show” (Apple TV+)
Jon Hamm
“The Morning Show” (Apple TV+)
Nathan Lane
“The Gilded Age” (Max)
Jonathan Pryce
“The Crown” (Netflix)
Benny Safdie
“The Curse” (Showtime)

Emmy category page with rankings>>>

Supporting Actor (Comedy)

Lionel Boyce
“The Bear” (FX)
Paul W. Downs
“Hacks” (Max)
Richard Lewis
“Curb Your Enthusiasm” (Max)
Ebon Moss-Bachrach ***
“The Bear” (FX)
Oliver Platt
“The Bear” (FX)
Paul Rudd
“Only Murders in the Building” (Hulu)
Tyler James Williams
“Abbott Elementary” (ABC)

Emmy category page with rankings>>>

Supporting Actor (Limited)

Tadanobu Asano
“Shо̄gun” (FX)
Jonathan Bailey ***
“Fellow Travelers” (Showtime)
Robert Downey Jr.
“The Sympathizer” (Max)
Christopher Eccleston
“True Detective: Night Country” (Max)
John Hawkes
“True Detective: Night Country” (Max)
Takehiro Hira 
“Shōgun” (FX)
Lewis Pullman
“Lessons in Chemistry” (Apple TV+)

Emmy category page with rankings>>>

Supporting Actress (Drama)

Christine Baranski
“The Gilded Age” (Max)
Nicole Beharie
“The Morning Show” (Apple TV+)
Elizabeth Debicki ***
“The Crown” (Netflix)
Greta Lee
“The Morning Show” (Apple TV+)
Lesley Manville
“The Crown” (Netflix)
Audra McDonald
“The Gilded Age” (Max)
Julianna Margulies
“The Morning Show” (Apple TV+)
Cynthia Nixon
“The Gilded Age” (Max)

Emmy category page with rankings>>>

Supporting Actress (Comedy)

Liza Colón-Zayas
“The Bear” (FX)
Hannah Einbinder
“Hacks” (Max)
Abby Elliott
“The Bear” (FX)
Molly Gordon
“The Bear” (FX)
Janelle James
“Abbott Elementary” (ABC)
Sheryl Lee Ralph
“Abbott Elementary” (ABC)
Meryl Streep ***
“Only Murders in the Building” (Hulu)

Emmy category page with rankings>>>

Supporting Actress (Limited)

Diane Lane
“Feud: Capote vs. the Swans” (FX)
Jessica Gunning ***
“Baby Reindeer” (Netflix)
Jennifer Jason Leigh
“Fargo” (FX)
Aja Naomi King
“Lessons in Chemistry” (Apple TV+)
Fumi Nikaidō
“Shо̄gun” (FX)
Kali Reis
“True Detective: Night Country” (Max)
Fiona Shaw
“True Detective: Night Country” (Max)

Emmy category page with rankings>>>

Guest Actor (Drama)

Will Arnett
“The Morning Show” (Apple TV+)
Michael Braugher
“The Gilded Age” (Max)
Michael Emerson ***
“Fallout” (Prime Video)
Rob Morgan
“Winning Time: Rise of the Lakers Dynasty” (Max)
John Turturro
“Mr. & Mrs. Smith” (Prime Video)

Emmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon!

Guest Actor (Comedy)

Jon Bernthal ***
“The Bear” (FX)
Ryan Gosling
“Saturday Night Live” (NBC)
Christopher McDonald
“Hacks” (Max)
John Mulaney
“The Bear” (FX)
Bob Odenkirk
“The Bear” (FX)
Jerry Seinfeld
“Curb Your Enthusiasm” (Max)

Emmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon!

Guest Actress (Drama)

Olivia Colman
“The Crown” (Netflix)
Claire Foy ***
“The Crown” (Netflix)
Marcia Gay Harden
“The Morning Show” (Apple TV+)
Natalie Morales
“The Morning Show” (Apple TV+)
Sarah Paulson
“Mr. & Mrs. Smith” (Prime Video)

Emmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon!

Guest Actress (Comedy)

Jamie Lee Curtis ***
“The Bear” (FX)
Olivia Colman
“The Bear” (FX)
Gillian Jacobs
“The Bear” (FX)
Sarah Paulson
“The Bear” (FX)
Emma Stone
“Saturday Night Live” (NBC)
Kristen Wiig
“Saturday Night Live” (NBC)

Emmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon!

Directing (Drama)

“The Crown” (Netflix) ***
Stephen Daldry, “Sleep, Dearie Sleep”
“The Curse” (Showtime)
Nathan Fielder, “Green Queen”
“Fallout” (Prime Video)
Jonathan Nolan, “The End”
“The Gilded Age” (Max)
Michael Engler, “You Don’t Even Like Opera”
“The Morning Show” (Apple TV+)
Mimi Leder, “The Overview Effect”
“Mr. & Mrs. Smith” (Prime Video)
Hiro Murai, “First Date”
“3 Body Problem” (Netflix)
Derek Tsang, “Countdown”

Emmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon!

Directing (Comedy)

“The Bear” (FX)
Joanna Calo, “Sundae”
“The Bear” (FX) ***
Christopher Storer, “Fishes”
“The Bear” (FX)
Ramy Youssef, “Honeydew”
“Curb Your Enthusiasm” (Max)
Jeff Schaffer, “No Lessons Learned”
“The Gentlemen” (Netflix)
Guy Ritchie, “Refined Aggression”
“Hacks” (Max)
Lucia Aniello, “Just For Laughs”

Emmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon!

Directing (Limited/TV Movie)

“Baby Reindeer” (Netflix)
Weronika Tofilska, “Episode 1”
“Lessons in Chemistry” (Apple TV+)
Sarah Adina Smith, “Her and Him”
“Masters of the Air” (Apple TV+)
Cary Joji Fukunaga, “Part One”
“Ripley” (Netflix)
Steven Zaillian, series
“Shо̄gun” (FX) ***
Frederick E.O. Toye, “Chapter Ten: A Dream of a Dream”
“Shо̄gun” (FX)
Jonathan van Tulleken, “Chapter One: Anjin”
“True Detective: Night Country” (Max)
Issa López, series

Emmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon!

Writing (Drama)

“The Crown” (Netflix) ***
“Sleep, Dearie Sleep” by Peter Morgan
“The Curse” (Showtime)
“Land of Enchantment” by Nathan Fielder & Benny Safdie
“Fallout” (Prime Video)
“The End” by Geneva Robertson-Dworet & Graham Wagner
“The Gilded Age” (Max)
“In Terms of Winning and Losing” by Julian Fellowes
“Mr. & Mrs. Smith” (Prime Video)
“First Date” by Francesca Sloane and Donald Glover
“3 Body Problem” (Netflix)
“Countdown” by David Benioff, D. B. Weiss, Alexander Woo

Emmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon!

Writing (Comedy)

“Abbott Elementary” (ABC)
“Career Day” by Quinta Brunson
“The Bear” (FX)
“Beef” by Christopher Storer
“The Bear” (FX) ***
“Fishes” by Joanna Calo, Christopher Storer
“The Bear” (FX)
“Forks” by Alex Russell
“Hacks” (Max)
“Just For Laughs” by Lucia Aniello, Paul W. Downs, Jen Statsky
“Only Murders in the Building” (Hulu)
“Opening Night” by John Hoffman, Ben Smith
“Reservation Dogs” (FX)
“Dig” by Chad Charlie and Sterlin Harjo

Emmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon!

Writing (Limited/TV Movie)

“Baby Reindeer” (Netflix) ***
Richard Gadd, series
“Fellow Travelers” (Showtime)
“You’re Wonderful” by Ron Nyswaner
“Ripley” (Netflix)
Steven Zaillian
“Shōgun” (FX)
“Chapter One: Anjin” by Rachel Kondo, Justin Marks
“Shōgun” (FX)
“Chapter Nine: Crimson Sky” by Rachel Kondo, Caillin Puente
“Shōgun” (FX)
“Chapter Ten: A Dream of a Dream” by Maegan Houang, Emily Yoshida
“True Detective: Night Country” (Max)
“Part 6” by Issa López

Emmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon!

Talk Series

“The Daily Show” (Comedy Central) ***
“Jimmy Kimmel Live!” (ABC)
“The Late Show with Stephen Colbert” (CBS)

Emmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon!

Scripted Variety Series

“Last Week Tonight with John Oliver” (Max) ***
“Saturday Night Live” (NBC)

Emmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon!

Game Show

“Family Feud” (Syndication)
“Game Changer” (Dropout)
“Jeopardy” (Syndication)
“The Price is Right” (CBS)
“Wheel of Fortune” (Syndication) ***

Emmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon!

Host for a Game Show

Steve Harvey
“Family Feud” (Syndication)
Ken Jennings
“Jeopardy” (Syndicated)
Keke Palmer ***
“Password” (NBC)
Sam Reich
“Game Changer” (Dropout)
Pat Sajak
“Wheel of Fortune” (Syndication)

Emmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon!

Host for a Reality/Competition Program

Bobby Berk, Karamo Brown, Tan France, Antoni Porowski, Jonathan Van Ness
“Queer Eye” (Netflix)
Alan Cumming ***
“The Traitors” (Peacock)
Guy Fieri
“Diners, Drive-ins and Dives” (Food Network)
Jeff Probst
“Survivor” (CBS)
RuPaul
“RuPaul’s Drag Race” (MTV)

Emmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon!

Reality or Competition Program

“The Amazing Race” (CBS)
“RuPaul’s Drag Race” (MTV)
“Survivor” (CBS)
“The Traitors” (Peacock) ***
“The Voice” (NBC)

Emmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon!

Structured Reality

“Antiques Roadshow” (PBS)
“Diners, Drive-Ins and Dives” (Food Network)
“Love is Blind” (Netflix)
“Queer Eye” (Netflix) ***
“Shark Tank” (ABC)

Emmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon!

Unstructured Reality

“Love on the Spectrum” (Netflix)
“RuPaul’s Drag Race: Untucked” (MTV) ***
“Selling Sunset” (Netflix)
“Vanderpump Rules” (Bravo)
“Welcome to Wrexham” (Hulu)

Emmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon!

Documentary (Series)

“American Nightmare” (Netflix)
“Beckham” (Netflix)
“The Jinx: The Life and Deaths of Robert Durst” (Max)
“Quiet on Set: The Dark Side of TV” (ID) ***
“Thank You, Goodnight: The Bon Jovi Story” (Hulu)

Emmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon!

Documentary (Special)

“Albert Brooks: Defending My Life” (Max)
“Girls State” (Apple TV+)
“Jim Henson Idea Man” (Disney+)
“The Greatest Night in Pop” (Netflix) ***
“STEVE! (martin) a documentary in 2 pieces” (Apple TV+)

Emmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon!

Hosted Nonfiction Program

“High on the Hog” (Netflix)
“How To With John Wilson” (Max)
“Life on our Planet” (Netflix)
“My Next Guest with David Letterman and John Mulaney” (Netflix) ***
“The Reluctant Traveler with Eugene Levy” (Apple TV+)

Emmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon!

Exceptional Merit

“Going to Mars: The Nikki Giovanni Project” (Max)
“The Pigeon Tunnel” (Apple TV+)
“Stamped from the Beginning” (Netflix)

Animated Program

“Archer” (FX)
“Blue Eye Samurai” (Netflix)
“Bob’s Burgers” (Fox)
“The Simpsons” (Fox)
“X-Men ’97” (Disney+) ***

Emmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon!

Variety Special (Live)

“The Apple Music Super Bowl LVIII Halftime Show Starring Usher” (CBS)
“The Oscars” (ABC) ***
“The 57th Annual Country Music Association Awards” (ABC)
“The 66th Annual Grammy Awards” (CBS)
“The 76th Tony Awards” (CBS)

Emmy category page with rankings>>>

Casting (Drama)

“Ahsoka” (Disney+)
“Avatar: The Last Airbender” (Netflix)
“The Crown” (Netflix) ***
“The Curse” (Showtime)
“Fallout” (Prime Video)

Emmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon!

Casting (Comedy)

“Abbott Elementary” (ABC)
“The Bear” (FX) ***
“Gen V” (Prime Video)
“The Gentlemen” (Netflix)
“I’m a Virgo” (Prime Video)

Emmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon!

Casting (Limited/TV Movie)

“Baby Reindeer” (Netflix)
“Expats” (Prime Video)
“Fargo” (FX)
“Feud: Capote vs. the Swans” (FX)
“Shо̄gun” (FX) ***

Emmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon!

Variety Special (Pre-Recorded)

“Dave Chappelle: The Dreamer” (Netflix) ***
“Dick Van Dyke 98 Years of Magic” (CBS)
“Ramy Youssef: More Feelings” (Max)
“Ricky Gervais: Armageddon” (Netflix)
“Trevor Noah: Where Was I” (Netflix)

Emmy category page with rankings>>>

More Information (Primetime Emmy Awards)

2024 Emmy Awards Calendar and Timeline (all dates are subject to change)

• Eligibility period: June 1, 2023 – May 31, 2024

• Feb. 29: Submissions open

• May 9: Deadline for programs that identify as Primetime programming to upload all entry materials.

• June 13: Nominations-round voting begins

• June 24: Nominations-round voting ends at 10:00 p.m. PT

• June 28 – July 8: Voting for peer group-specific top ten rounds panels (if applicable)

• July 17: Primetime Emmy nominations are announced.

• July 24: Deadline for errors and omissions to the nominations.

• August 5: Find-round videos available for viewing.

• August 15: Final-round voting begins.

• August 26: Final-round voting ends at 10:00 p.m. PST.

• Sept. 7-8: Creative Arts Emmy Awards and Governors Gala

• Sunday, Sept. 15: 76th Primetime Emmy Awards to air on ABC.

Emmy Awards Predictions

Other Awards Predictions

About the Primetime Emmy Awards

The Primetime Emmy Awards, commonly known as the Emmys, are awarded by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences (ATAS). Established in 1949, these celebrate outstanding achievements in American primetime television. The Emmys are categorized into three divisions: the Primetime Emmy Awards for performance and production excellence, the Primetime Creative Arts Emmy Awards recognizing achievements in artistry and craftsmanship, and the Primetime Engineering Emmy Awards, which honor significant engineering and technological advancements. The eligibility period typically extends from June 1 to May 31 each year. The Television Academy, which hosts the Emmys, consists of over 20,000 members across 30 professional peer groups, including performers, directors, producers, art directors, artisans and executives.

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